Estimating ML-Models Financial Impact

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  • Project valuation: valuation metrics, planning and rules
    • Model development and deployment is always a project. During this week, we will discuss project valuation. We will consider the general financial metrics such as Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, and others.
  • Model quality and decision making. Benefit curve
    • During the second week, we will focus on decision-making based on model predictions and the relationship between model quality and financial benefit. We will discuss how to plot benefit curves using different threshold decisions and optimize the financial results using threshold tuning.
  • Estimating model risk discounts
    • When a model is being used in the production environment for a long time, its quality can deteriorate. During this week, we will learn to calculate confidence intervals for model quality estimates and estimate potential negative financial effects.
  • A/B testing and financial result verification
    • A/B testing is a great way to verify our expectations concerning the financial effects. During this week, we will discuss the principles of A/B testing, its design, as well as the ways to assess its outcomes.
  • Unobservable model errors, metalearning
    • Imagine that our historical data is biased, and we cannot obtain any other data. During this week, we will discuss how to restore unobservable events by using such methods as reject inference and metalearning.